Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
